​By David Western
 
The Kenya Wildlife Service has floated a ten-year plan (2020-2030) for Nairobi National Park. This is timely and urgently needed.  Nairobi was Kenya’s first national park, gazetted in 1946. With the park under growing pressure on all sides, and from within, its future looks bleak as the standard bearer of Kenya’s parks. What better event to celebrate the 75th anniversary of our national park than a plan to secure the future of Nairobi National Park for all time? The ten-year plan to save and restore the park is five years late and doubly urgent because of the delay.

Unfortunately, KWS was put under pressure to ram through the proposal with little public input apart from box-ticking. The railroading ran up against a hail of criticism. Hidden from view were a rash of developments that run counter to the goals of the Wildlife Act 2013: to keep parks in an “untrammeled” natural state. With KWS already having ceded parts of the park to the Southern Bypass Road, overhead rail line and a goods depot in the works, the public criticisms are well grounded.  

I participated in public reviews of the Nairobi National Park 2020-2030 plan and have given my comments at various meetings and to KWS directly. I feel strongly that the plan needs all the public participation it can get and will be greatly strengthened by the input and guidance. Kenya’s parks are, after all, vested in the citizens of Kenya, not the government.

KWS as the custodian has the heavy burden and deep responsibility to ensure its future for all its peoples, and as a world heritage. I was asked by Swara magazine to review the plan. The review is given here. Most of the points are straightforward, but I had too little space to expand on the two most important points of all: fencing and the ecological restoration of the park. I have added some addition points here to clarify my views and  recommendations.

I visited NNP regularly in the late 1960s when I was a graduate student at the University of Nairobi starting out on my research and conservation work in Amboseli. The park in the early dry season was like a mini-Serengeti with long lines of zebra and wildebeest snaking back into the park from their wet season migrations on the Athi Plains. During the rains, large resident herds of kongoni, impala, warthog, gazelle and solitary territorial wildebeest dotted the short grass plains, giving lions and cheetahs abundant prey to keep them in the park. In the early 1970s, as I flew across the Athi Plains to Amboseli, I looked down on the tens of thousands of wildebeest and zebra stretching across the southern plains from Konza to the rift edge during the rains. Traffic on the Namanga Road was often held up for minutes by the migrating herds.
 
In the early 1980s when I bought land bordering the park, I wandered across the open plains, stretching unbroken to Kajiado, through large herds of eland, wildebeest and zebra, all milling about waiting to file across a narrow defile in the Mbagathi gorge into the park. Within a few years the wildebeest migrations were severed by residential housing. A solitary male hung on in a resident herd of impala on our land for a further year before he too disappeared. By then the tens of thousands of migratory animals on the Athi Plains had been whittled down by meat poachers, sprawling settlements and fences to a whisper of their former honking masses.
 
Once the migratory herds dwindled, long grasses and shrubs spang up with the falling grazing pressure and the suspension of burn management programs the wardens formerly used to prevent the invasion of rank vegetation. By the late 1980s, when it was clear that wildebeest were shunning the tall rank grasses in favor of the shorter grasslands on the Athi ranches to the south, I asked Helen Gichohi, a MS student at the time, to conduct an experimental burning program to restore the shorter grasslands. Her study showed how early burning to create shorter greener grasses became a magnate for wildebeest, zebra, gazelle and warthog, as they were in the 1960s (Gichohi, 1990). We went on to show that the more heavily grazed grasses outside the park were richer and more palatable than the rank grasslands inside. In other words, parks can lose their richness of wildlife and vegetation without restorative management (Western and Gichohi, 1994).
  
In the mid-1990s, as director of the Kenya Wildlife Service, I used the evidence of Helen’s work to begin restoring the dwindling wildlife numbers and grasslands using an experimental early burning program. The results were dramatic. For the next three years the burned area in the south west of the park drew in large herds of wildlife and an entourage of visitors. After I left KWS,  conservation lobbyists pressured KWS to abandon the restoration program, arguing nature should be left unmanaged. The heavy El Niño rains of 1998 hastened the growth of tall vegetation and the decline of wildlife, especially the smaller species, including gazelles and warthogs. The dwindling herds of wildebeest and zebra returned to the park later each season and, the once resident herds in the rain season shrank too, lions and cheetahs began regularly attacking livestock outside the park.
 
By 2010 dense settlements spreading out from Ongata Rongai township and Tuala blocked all wildlife movements at the western end of the park. I saw the last cheetah shortly afterwards and worried about the mounting toll of lion and hyena attacks on livestock and dogs in the residential estates. The community, angry and scared, demanded KWS remove the predators and fence the park after a series night encounters. In December, the anger  bubbled over when a person returning from Tuala late at night was eaten by a lion.
 
I’m no fan of fencing parks. I’ve done all I can to prevent that happening by  promoting community-based conservation and nature enterprises as a win for park neighbors and wildlife. The 150-plus conservancies in Kenya testify to the success—where land is still open. Where parks are surrounded by  a sea of settlement, the Aberdare, Shimba and Nakuru among them, fences are vital for protecting wildlife and people. I’ve promoted fencing in each of these cases and raised funds to electrify the fence hard up against the city on its northern and western boundaries. Yet I hold out the hope of avoiding fencing the park on its southern border.

How in any event would  the park be fenced when the center of the Mbagathi River is the park boundary? The only option is to fence inside the river edge, but this would exclude the river, the park’s most important lifeline. There are other problems with fencing in the southern park. Unless the grasslands and wildlife are restored first, the park will become more of an ecological trap than conservation lifeline as predators drive down the depleted herds even further.  The herbivores need as much space and movement as possible to sustain the interplay of predators, prey and healthy pastures.

Adding to the fencing problem, not all residents south of the park agree on the solutions. The Ongata Rongai and Tuala residents want the park fenced now, and there is no other option. The eastern end of the park remains open though, and the largely Maasai ranching community has joined a leasing program to keep wildlife on their lands, hoping to benefit from nature enterprises. Many oppose fencing altogether.

I’ve long advocated that the debate about whether to fence or not should be informed by what is to be fenced in and left out. Even if the park is to be fenced in, the abundance and diversity of plants and animals should be restored first to avoid further ecological decline. KWS is to be commended for making ecological restoration a primary plant of the 2020-2030 Plan. The restoration program stands to boost wildlife numbers, keep predators anchored in the park, improve habitat quality and diversity, and raise the park’s profile and visitor appeal.
I’ve suggested in the Swara article that the southern fence be considered in three phases, emulating the step-by-step approach to fencing in the Aberdare National Park.

For Phase 1, I’ve joined neighboring landowners along the Mbagathi River discussing with KWS a fence running along the back of our properties as far as Maasai Gate. This will give wildlife access to the river and use of our land and prevent predators from straying into the built-up Ongata Rongai and Tuala areas.

Phase 2, running from Maasai Gate to the overhead rail line, needs similar consultations to see how far into the Athi Plains the fence can extend.

Phase 3, from the rail line to the eastern border of the park, is far more contentions. Here most landowners are Maasai ranchers who have formed a wildlife conservancy and land leasing arrangements, hoping to benefit from wildlife on their land. The prospects for winning a large area of open space for wildlife are good yet call for detailed property and land surveys and open discussions. This will take time. Rushing ahead without due process will anger the community, frustrate KWS and short-change wildlife.

KWS should focus on getting agreement on the broad principles and strategies in the 2020-2030 plan for Nairobi National Park and work out the details as a part of its execution. As the plan stands, it is too saturated with details. It loses sight of the broad areas of agreement, public support and continuing engagement and refinement needed for the plan to succeed. No two issues in the plan need these open-minded flexible approaches more than ecological restoration and fencing.

Gichohi, H. W. (1990). The Effects of Fire and Grazing on the Grasslands of Nairobi National Park. MSc thesis. University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.

Western, D. and Gichohi, H. (1994). Segregation effects and the impoverishment of savanna parks:  the case for an ecosystem viability analysis. African Journal of Ecology 31 (4): 269-281.

​The pandemic is already disrupting every sector of society, from entertainment and sports to manufacturing and the health and service industries. And the worst is yet to come. Conservationists blame the pandemic on the loss of biodiversity degraded ecosystems and climate change. They have a point. New virulent diseases, along with invasive species and pests, thrive when nature dies.
In the case of the Coronavirus the blame lies squarely on the illegal trade in wildlife species, fueled by globalization. Diseases such as Ebola, Marburg and HIV erupted in small scattered communities in the past but remained localized epidemics. No longer.
In the last few decades, global travel has spawned virulent novel viruses such as SARS, MERS, H1N1 and COVID-19, infecting hundreds of millions around  the world in weeks. These new pandemics are a grave threat to every nation, every individual. causing 6 of 10 infectious diseases, 2.5 billion illnesses and 2.7 million deaths each year.
The wildlife trade, worth $23 billion annually, operates largely underground like drug trafficking. And like the ivory wars which slashed elephant numbers across Africa from 1.2 million in 1970 to 450,000 today, the wildlife trade is driven by rising wealth in Asia. Hundreds of species of amphibians, snakes, fish, birds and mammals are butchered for the wildlife trade, among them bats, civets and pangolins suspected of transmitting lethal viruses.
We can’t be sure which species in the wildlife market in Wuhan sparked the COVID-19 pandemic. Regardless, the cramped confined conditions flouting concerns for animal welfare and human health, have unleashed the most devastating pandemic in modern times.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been dubbed the revenge of wildlife. Revenge it isn’t. Coronavirus smites indiscriminately. For every illegal trader infected, hundreds of millions of people are at risk, among them ardent animal lovers, doctors and nurses. Overlooked is the impact of the pandemic on wildlife. 

Worst hit by the coronavirus is the global travel industry. Worth $5.3 trillion a year and employing 1 in 10 people worldwide, tourism generates over 10 percent of Kenya and Tanzania’s GDP. The unseen victims of the tourism collapse are the very communities which protect and benefit from wildlife.
Community-based conservation is the greatest home-grown success in protecting Africa’s wildlife. Today, Kenya’s 150 community and private conservancies span 11 percent of the country, a larger area than all the national parks and reserves combined. Tanzania’s Wildlife Management Areas under local stewardship are playing an ever-growing role in conservation. In both countries, tourism is the engine of community-based conservation, creating thousands of jobs running ecotourism enterprises, deploying wildlife rangers and providing support services.   

​The elephant and wildlife populations are larger than when I first began counts in 1967, despite the precipitous declines across the continent. Even the giraffe, newly listed as a threatened species, has increased in the last two decades and is among the largest and safest population in Africa. The remarkable success of Amboseli depends on the hundreds of community rangers protecting wildlife, and on the income from tourism which generates jobs, scholarships for children and supports social services and women’s enterprises. Visit here to learn more.
The South Rift Association of Landowners joining Amboseli to Maasai Mara has shown similar success. The migratory herds and lion numbers have increased, and elephants have returned to the area for the first time in decades.
The collapse of tourism worldwide is disastrous for wildlife and community initiatives in East Africa. The shutdown at peak tourism season is closing lodges and wildlife enterprises overnight, and there will be no quick recovery. With the coronavirus causing a global recession, it will be many months before tourism recovers. 

​First, lobby your politicians to pressure for the closure of the wildlife trade. A remote shot two years ago, China and other Asian countries have since banned the sale of ivory, showing a total closure is possible. Elephant poaching has declined sharply across Africa since the bans. Now is the moment to press for an end to the animal trade and make the world a safer place.
 
Second, help fill the void left by the collapse of the tourism industry in Africa. Wildlife tourism creates a virtuous circle. The visitor enjoys the safari of a lifetime to the greatest wildlife spectacles on earth, creates jobs and opportunities for communities, and wins a place for wildlife.
For the hundreds of thousands of visitors who‘ve had to cancel or defer safaris, a small portion of the savings made as a conservation contribution will make a world of difference. For others unable to make a wildlife safari,  a contribution to community-based conservation helps support the custodians of wildlife.
A lion is worth ten times more alive through tourism than supplying claws to the wildlife trade. Stopping the wildlife trade and supporting community programs will help prevent another pandemic and save wildlife. 

In 1969 Dr. Western gave a public talk at the National Museums of Kenya urging the need to engage communities and general public in wildlife conservation. Over 50 years later he reviewed the strides Kenya has made yet the continuing failures to halt wildlife declines. In his talk he reviews how Kenya turn the tide and make its wildlife conservation a real success story.

Watch the presentation here.

The African Conservation Centre is pleased to announce that our founding executive director, Dr. David Western, is a nominee for the 2016 Indianapolis Prize.  Initiated in 2005 by the Indianapolis Zoo, this prize is recognized as the world’s leading award for animal conservation. The Indianapolis Prize is awarded biennially to an individual who has made extraordinary contributions to conservation efforts involving an animal species or group of species.  In addition to a $250,000 cash award, the winner — selected from among six finalists — receives the Lilly Medal and each of the other five finalists receives $10,000. Finalists will be honored at the next Indianapolis Prize Gala to be held Oct. 15, 2016.

Dr. Western was selected as a nominee for his more than 48 years of pioneering research and community-based conservation strategies in East Africa.  He was among the first scientists to recognize the limitations of national parks and investigate how humans and wildlife can coexist. His pioneering community-based conservation work has served as a model for finding a place for wildlife beyond parks around the world.  

As former executive director and current chairman of African Conservation Centre, director of Kenya Wildlife Service and conservation director for Wildlife Conservation Society International, Western has been a leader in many areas of conservation, including research, international programs, short and long-term conservation planning, ecotourism, training, directing governmental and non-governmental organizations and public education.

He established the Wildlife Planning Unit in Kenya in 1978, was the chairman of the African Elephant and Rhino Specialist Group in the 1980s, founding president of the International Ecotourism Society, chairman of the Wildlife Clubs of Kenya and Carter Chair of Conservation Biology, Wildlife Conservation Society.  He established the “Parks Beyond Parks” movement to promote communities setting up their own wildlife sanctuaries and enterprises and led efforts to set up the first community-based wildlife conservancies in Kenya. Western also promoted horizontal learning exchanges in East Africa and around the world so that communities can learn first-hand from each other’s experience.  

During his many national and international assignments, Western has continued his groundbreaking research in Amboseli. The Amboseli Conservation Program he set up in 1967 is the longest running ecosystem research program in Africa. His research has pioneered the integration of human-wildlife studies, underscored the significance of pastoralism in savanna ecosystems, shown the underlying basis of human-wildlife coexistence in the savannas and developed many of the basic techniques for studying and monitoring large mammal ecosystems. His research into the life history and ecology of large mammals has been cited as one of the foundational studies in the new field of macroecology. His articles have appeared in Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, Bioscience, PLoS, Ecology and other prominent science journals.

His honors include the World Ecology Award, Harris World Ecology Center at the University of Missouri-St. Louis; Conservation Medal, Zoological Society of San Diego; Lifetime Achievement Award by the International Ecotourism Society; Order of the Golden Ark; San Diego Zoo Conservation Medal, Cincinnati Zoological Society; and Elder of the Burning Spear.

Western’s publications include Conservation for the Twenty-first Century (OUP, 1989), Natural Connections:  Perspectives in Community-based Conservation (Island Press, 1994) and In the Dust of Kilimanjaro (Shearwater, 2001).  He earned his bachelor’s degree from Leicester University in England and his doctorate from the University of Nairobi in Kenya.  Leicester University awarded him a prestigious “Doctor of Science” in 2002.

For more information about the Indianapolis Prize, please visit:  www.indianapolisprize.org and accafrica.org.

1st Annual Rangeland Congress of Kenya
11th and 12th August 2015

The future of rangelands is at a crossroad. Covering three quarters of Kenya, supporting 60 percent of national livestock herd and 90 percent of all wildlife, the rangelands face grave threats. The threats include population growth, poverty, land degradation, recurrent drought, loss of rivers and wetlands, declining wildlife and climate change. The collapse of subsistence economies and cultures has left families destitute. Land subdivision and sales, the extraction of charcoal, sand, building stone and wildlife poaching have risen with poverty and social disruption. Poor social services and lack of technical skills hamper opportunities for alternative livelihoods in a tight job market.

Despite the enormous threats facing Kenya’s rangelands, the opportunities to reverse the trends through improved breeds, better husbandry and marketing skills, range restoration, grass banks, arable and irrigated arming, wildlife enterprises, ecotourism, renewable energy, carbon markets and natural resource businesses have been poorly developed. The 2010 constitution sets the tone for rangeland communities to form a strong constituency, set the agenda and build the skills needed to conserve and develop the arid and semi-arid lands.

Many progressive landowner associations have taken the initiative in recent years to redress the threats and open up new opportunities for managing and sustaining the rangelands. The Rangelands Association of Kenya, in collaboration with the African Conservation Centre, University of Nairobi Centre for Sustainable Drylands Ecosystems and Societies and the International Livestock and Research Organization, hosted the congress at the Commercial Bank of Africa Conference Centre in Nairobi on the 11th and 12th of August 2015. The congress brought together the voices and views of land owner associations invited  speakers, government and country governments, national and international agencies to highlight the status, threats and opportunities in the rangelands and chart the way ahead.

David Western and Lucy Waruingi of African Conservation Centre were key speakers. Courtney White, founder of the Quivira Coalition based in New Mexico, gave a talk on the New Ranch concept emerging in the US to ensure sustainable and resilient ranching practices and restore degraded rangelands.

After the congress members of the Rangeland Association of Kenya held a one-day meeting to decide on the way ahead. The steps will include recruiting as many rangeland communities and associations as possible in the coming year to give them a strong voice in the conservation and management of their lands; address the marginalization of pastoral societies; engage national and county governments on policy and planning matters, build up the management capacity of communities in collaboration with NGOs, improve access to education and information; promote sustainable livestock systems and wildlife conservation enterprises, and draw on the best of traditional and modern husbandry practices in guiding the transition from subsistence to market economies.

At the closing of the congress David Western formally launched the Rangeland Association of Kenya, representing landowner associations. Prof. Jessi Njoka of University of Nairobi announced the launch of the Rangeland Society of Kenya, representing professional managers and scientists.

The Amboseli Conservation Program teamed up with the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, Kenya Wildlife Service, the African Conservation Centre and Big Life in winning support from the NAGA Foundation to restore fever tree and tortilis woodland in and around Amboseli National Park damaged by many years of heavy elephant concentration. The program will also restore pastures damaged around permanent livestock settlements by setting a series of traditional olopololi, calf grazing areas protected by thorn fencing.

The start-up funding in the first year will cover the cost of setting up and monitoring three high-level electric fences that exclude only elephants, allowing seedlings held in check by heavy browsing to mature and regenerate the once abundant woodlands of Amboseli. More details of the restoration program will be posted shortly.

I flew an aerial count of the Amboseli basin on 30th July and did a ground survey with David Maitumo and Victor Mose on 14th August. The increase in wildlife in the last few months was astonishing. The herds are rapidly rebuilding to their pre-drought levels after being held down by predators in the years since the devastating losses of 2008. I counted some 330 buffalo, up from 160 after the drought and halfway back to the 600 level of 2009. The zebra population is continuing to climb steadily and wildebeest numbers have jumped since earlier this year. I suspect the increase is in part due to an influx from Tsavo or Tanzania this dry season.

The biggest surprise to me was the number of hippos. Once few and illusive, groups of ten or more are visible all along two large swamps and out on the banks sunning to the delight of park visitors. The highest number I’ve counted, around 100, was shortly before the 2008 drought when over 30 hippos died of starvation. Although I didn’t do a full count, I put their numbers now at 200. So what accounts for their increase?

The most likely reason is the rich matt of grasses that have sprung up across the swamps after the elephants chomped down the tall sedges. I watched a group of seven hippos half submerged in the swamp snatching at dense wads of forage in the middle of the day without having to budge.
Reedbuck are also more common in Amboseli than any time in decades, no doubt due to the same dense grazing lawns attracting other grazers.

This year is shaping up for drought around Amboseli if the short rains on October fail. With two months yet to go, the Maasai are worried about the ailing condition of their livestock. In contrast, Amboseli’s wildebeest and buffalo are in good condition and their calves are doing well, buffered by spreading swamp waters and a flush of new grass.

I’m puzzled by the spreading swamps. I’ve seen them rise in dry spells before, but seldom as extensively. The rising water has flooded David Maitumo’s house and is eating away at the foundations, forcing him to evacuate furniture and equipment.

NORTHERN TANZANIA ECOSYSTEMS MONITORING WORKSHOP
Mbirkani Group Ranch
14th to 16th August 2015  

The workshop brought together conservation organizations interested in setting up ecosystem monitoring practices in northern Tanzania under the umbrella of the Borderlands Conservation Initiative (BCI) and the Northern Tanzania Rangeland Initiative (NTRI). The two-day training workshop included participants from HoneyGuide (HG), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), Tanzania People and Wildlife (TPW) and Progetto Oikos. The Uaso Nyiro Baboon Project in Kenya also attended. The workshop was conducted by David Western, Victor Mose and David Maitumo of the Amboseli Conservation Program (ACP) and the African Conservation Centre (ACC), with support from the Amboseli Resource Assessors (RA’s), Paul Kasaine, Samuel Lekanaiya and George Sunte. The workshop covered the monitoring techniques developed and conducted in the Amboseli ecosystem over many years. The workshop was designed for heads of programs and those overseeing the monitoring. Training for community-based RAs will be given on the ground, preferably in Tanzania, once candidates have been appointed.

An introduction to the long-term monitoring Amboseli program was given on site in Amboseli on 14th August ahead of the workshop. The workshop, held at Big Life on Mbirikani Group Ranch, took place on 15th and 16th August, demonstrated all aspects of monitoring design, methodology, field equipment, data storage, and applications to rangeland conservation and management. The workshop began with a demonstration of how to measure a rangeland plots and code, record, enter and process data using open source software to produce rapid statistical and visual outputs for immediate application.

The workshop covered the following aspects, including designing and setting up an ecological monitoring scheme, sampling design, tools, and communicating the findings to decision-makers and on websites. The role of RAs and their value in collecting and providing information to their communities has grown steadily in recent years and includes, natural resource mapping; land use surveys; testing and assessing the impact of development and restoration programs; socioeconomic and attitudinal surveys, and information communication and outreach.

SETTING UP AND INTEGRATING MONITORING PROGRAMS

The final session discussed how to set up, fund, integrate and coordinate rangeland monitoring among the participating partners in northern Tanzania between partnering organizations in Kenya. It drew heavily on the organizational approach for coordinating research, planning and management adopted by the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust. HG, Oikos, TPW and WCS have submitted a proposal to US AID under the umbrella of NTRI to set up monitoring programs in northern Tanzania. The organizations present agreed to link up monitoring projects southern Kenya and northern Tanzania through BCI’s community-driven program. Subject to funding availability, ACP will set up a Windows-based platform that includes databases and analytical packages based on open-source software.

The workshop concluded with an agreement to work towards a common website that would provide a monthly assessment of range conditions across the borderlands region and early-warnings of pasture shortfalls and hard times for wildlife and livestock.
 

ATTENDEES
 
Sam Shaba                     HGF
Daudi Mollel                    HGF
Boniface osujaki             WCS
Paul Baran Kirway          WCS
G. Mollel                         Oikos  
Sivia Ceppi                     Oikos
Fabrizio Orsini                Oikos
Charles Trout                 TPW
Neovitus Sianga             TPW
Victor Mose                     ACP
David Western                ACP  
David Maitumo                ACC
George Sunte                 ACC
Paul Kasaine                  ACC
Samuel Lekanaiya          ACC

David Muiriri of the Uaso Nyiro Baboon Projects attended as an observer and                
Howard Fredrick of the Tanzania Conservation Resource Centre joined the field program in Amboseli.

At a special session of the World Parks Congress held in Sydney, Australia, on November 2014, David Western gave a presentation on the role of community-based conservation in winning space for wildlife beyond national parks and in reducing human-wildlife conflict.   

Amboseli played an important role in gaining recognition for community-based conservation as a complement to national parks when David Western gave a presentation at the World Parks Congress in Bali in 1982. The first of its kind in Kenya, the initiative launched in Amboseli in the early 1970s led to a new nation policy aimed at ecosystem-wide conservation through the engagement and to the benefit of local communities.

Amboseli has since been a test-bed for new conservation policies and practices that have become widespread throughout Kenya and internationally. The most recent advances are the adoption of the Amboseli Ecosystem Management Plan following the completion of a Strategic Environmental (SEA) commissioned by the National Environmental Management Authority. The SEA approval makes the Amboseli ecosystem plan to first of its kind to be given legal recognition and enforcement through the higher national authority.

A full account of the role Amboseli has played in developing and promoting community-based conservation and the success of the movement over the last forty years can be found in the accompanying article: Finding space for wildlife beyond parks through community-based conservation: the Kenya experience. David Western, John Waithaka and John Kamanga. Parks 21. 1. 2015.